Analysis of flood propagation changes in the Kienstock—Bratislava reach of the Danube River/Analyse des changements de propagation des crues dans le tronçon Kienstock—Bratislava du Fleuve Danube     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)

Abstract

In the first part of this study, a flood wave transformation analysis for the largest historical floods in the Danube River reach Kienstock–Bratislava was carried out. For the simulation of the historical (1899 and 1954) flood propagation, the nonlinear river model NLN-Danube (calibrated on the recent river reach conditions) was used. It was shown that the simulated peak discharges were not changed significantly when compared to their historical counterparts. However, the simulated hydrographs exhibit a significant acceleration of the flood wave movement at discharges of between 5000 and 9000 m³ s^-1. In the second part, the travel time-water level relationships between Kienstock and Bratislava were analysed on a dataset of the flood peak water levels for the period 1991–2002. An empirical regression routing scheme for the Danube short-term water level forecast at Bratislava station was derived. This is based on the measured water level at Kienstock gauging station.  相似文献   

THE STUDY OF RETRIEVAL THEORY AND METHODS FROM SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING FOR METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS OVER EASTERN ASIA—PART Ⅱ:ISPRM AND VSPRM2          下载免费PDF全文

黎光清  董超华  张文建  张凤英  王保华  冉茂农  吴雪宝  王维和  潘宁 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2000,(4)

Based on the practice of improved simultaneous physical retrieval model(ISPRM),in the lightof the functional analysis approach,the variational simultaneous physical retrieval model(VSPRM)has been developed.Its approximation of 1st degree is VSPRM1,which is identicalwith the ISPRM.Its approximation of 2nd degree is VSPRM2,more advanced than the VSPRM1.This paper has analyzed the function of VSPRM2,pointing out the potentiality of synergy retrievalof this model.Also,it has dealt with the problem of parameterization of water vapor's kernelfunctions and retrieval of water vapor remote sensing.Because of the characteristics of this strong ill posed inverse problem,prior information mustbe used wisely in order to get the accurate calculation of radiance R.In the previous paper,wediscussed how to build the best first guess field,the way to determine the P_s and to correct thecalculation of radiance.In this paper,we continue discussing in depth about the calculation oftransmittance,the determination of surface parameters and the selection for an optimumcombination of channels for the low-level sounding.The long-term experiment and comparison work under operational environment have shownthat the ISPRM is useful for retrieval of temperature and water vapor parameters over Chinaincluding the Tibetan Plateau,and it further proves the scientific nature of well-posed inversetheory.  相似文献   

Assess hydrological responses to a warming climate at the Lysina Critical Zone Observatory in Central Europe     

Wenjuan Zheng  Anna Lamačová  Xuan Yu  Pavel Krám  Jakub Hruška  Pavel Zahradníček  Petr Štěpánek  Aleš Farda 《水文研究》2021,35(9):e14281

Climate warming is having profound effects on the hydrological cycle by increasing atmospheric demand, changing water availability, and snow seasonality. Europe suffered three distinct heat waves in 2019, and 11 of the 12 hottest years ever recorded took place in the past two decades, which will potentially change seasonal streamflow patterns and long-term trends. Central Europe exhibited six dry years in a row since 2014. This study uses data from a well-documented headwater catchment in Central Europe (Lysina) to explore hydrological responses to a warming climate. We applied a lumped parameter hydrologic model Brook90 and a distributed model Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) to simulate long-term hydrological change under future climate scenarios. Both models performed well on historic streamflow and in agreement with each other according to the catchment water budget. In addition, PIHM was able to simulate lateral groundwater redistribution within the catchment validated by the groundwater table dynamics. The long-term trends in runoff and low flow were captured by PIHM only. We applied different EURO-CORDEX models with two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5, 8.5) and found significant impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) for the period of 2071–2100. Results from both models suggested reduced runoff and increased ET, while the monthly distribution of runoff was different. We used this catchment study to understand the importance of subsurface processes in projection of hydrologic response to a warming climate.  相似文献   

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility          下载免费PDF全文

Jing Wu  Jian Yin  Yonghong Hao  Yan Liu  Yonghui Fan  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2015,29(13):2855-2866

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

模拟退火方法在三维速度模型地震波走时反演中的应用   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

李飞  张雪梅  陈宏峰  何少林 《中国地震》2017,33(3):355-364

采用块状建模以及三角形拼接的界面描述方式,并通过立方体速度网格线性插值获得块体内部的速度分布。正演过程中采用逐段迭代射线追踪方法计算三维复杂地质模型中的射线走时,并采用模拟退火方法进行了三维模型中的地震波走时反演研究。模型测试结果表明,使用的射线追踪和走时反演算法有效。  相似文献   

新疆精河M_W6.3地震产生的静态应力变化研究     

李瑶  万永革  靳志同  黄骥超  刘兆才  杨帆 《中国地震》2017,33(4):671-681

利用精河M_W6.3地震有限断层破裂模型,计算了精河地震产生的位移场、应力场、周围主要断层上的静态库仑应力变化以及主震对余震的触发作用。结果表明:(1)精河地震产生的地表隆升最大值约为6.6cm,沉降最大值约为1.8cm;水平位移方向呈现震中南北侧向震中汇聚、震中东西侧向外"流出"的特点。(2)精河地震产生的水平面应力场展布南北侧物质主要受到指向震中的拉张力作用,东西两侧物质主要受到因震中过剩物质东西向排出而导致的东西向挤压力作用。(3)震中西侧距震中约20km的库松木契克山前断裂中段和震中东北部距震中约50km的四棵树-古尔图南断裂西段的库仑应力加载均大于0.01MPa,即2处为地震危险区。(4)在震源深度为8~12km的余震事件中,约有85.5%处于库仑应力加载区,即受到主震的的触发作用;在深度为4~8km的余震事件中,约有87%受到主震的应力触发作用。  相似文献   

M5'模型树算法和无人机航拍影像在震后崩塌滑坡分析中的应用——以鲁甸M_S6.5地震为例     

王伟平  杨建思  高瑜  徐志强  姜旭东  郑钰  彭朝勇 《中国地震》2017,33(1):68-80

利用高分辨率无人机航拍影像,结合基本地质资料,分析了影响2014年8月3日鲁甸M_S6.5地震震后崩塌滑坡分布的主要因素,使用M5'模型树算法建立了崩塌滑坡密度与其影响因子间的分段线性模型,并检验了该模型的预测性能。结果表明,地震诱发的崩塌滑坡分布受断层距、岩土体结构强度、坡度、植被条件等的影响,其中,断层距、岩土体结构强度及坡度等为主要影响因素;崩塌滑坡易发生在结构破裂区及坡度为38°~50°的区域,其分布密度随断层距的增加而减小;利用M5'模型树算法建立的模型体现出崩塌滑坡分布与其影响因子间复杂的非线性关系,模型检验结果显示,理论模型与实际关联函数间的相关系数达到0.88,因此,可利用该模型预测地震诱发的崩塌滑坡的分布。  相似文献   

南天山西段地震尾波Q值研究     

尼鲁帕尔&#;买买吐孙  夏爱国  海仁妮莎 《中国地震》2017,33(3):432-441

基于新疆地震台网的数字地震波形资料,采用Aki的地震尾波单次散射模型,选取了南天山西段10个台站周围60km范围内M_S≥2.0的397次地震事件计算并得到了不同台站的尾波Qc值。结果显示,南天山西段尾波Q_0值平均值在140~390之间,其中喀什台和乌恰台Q_0值最低;频率相关系数η的平均值在0.62~1.00之间,拟合平均Q值与对应频率之间的关系结果为Q=261.2±110.8f~(0.80±0.28),表明该地区是以低Q_0高η值为特征的构造活跃区。  相似文献   

CAP1400核岛结构缩尺模型对地震反应影响分析     

李小军  韩杰  王晓辉  贺秋梅 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(2):241-253

针对核电厂CAP1400核岛结构地震反应问题，构建了核岛屏蔽厂房和辅助厂房整体结构的3个分析模型:原型和1/16、1/40缩尺模型，并在AP000谱和RG1.60谱地震动输入下进行了有限元模拟对比分析，探讨了振动台试验模型缩尺处理的合理性和精确性。研究表明，基于缩尺模型得到的结构自振频率相对于原型结构模型有所降低，降低幅度在8.5%以内；结构模型的缩尺对结构反应峰值加速度和高频（大于3Hz）加速度反应谱的影响较为显著，但对较低频（小于3Hz）的加速度反应谱影响较小；模型缩尺对结构不同方向反应的影响中，刚度越大的方向其影响越大。进一步将结构模型数值模拟结果与1/16缩尺模型的振动台试验结果进行了比较分析，试验给出的结构自振频率远低于模型数值模拟结果，但原型和1/16缩尺模型数值模拟得到的结构反应均与试验结果较为接近。基于模型数值模拟和振动台试验研究，认为对于缩尺比1/16或更大的模型可以忽略模型的缩尺效应。  相似文献   

Multicriteria sensitivity analysis as a diagnostic tool for understanding model behaviour and characterizing model uncertainty   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Amin Haghnegahdar  Saman Razavi  Fuad Yassin  Howard Wheater 《水文研究》2017,31(25):4462-4476

Complex hydrological models are being increasingly used nowadays for many purposes such as studying the impact of climate and land‐use change on water resources. However, building a high‐fidelity model, particularly at large scales, remains a challenging task, due to complexities in model functioning and behaviour and uncertainties in model structure, parameterization, and data. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA), which characterizes how the variation in the model response is attributed to variations in its input factors (e.g., parameters and forcing data), provides an opportunity to enhance the development and application of these complex models. In this paper, we advocate using GSA as an integral part of the modelling process by discussing its capabilities as a tool for diagnosing model structure and detecting potential defects, identifying influential factors, characterizing uncertainty, and selecting calibration parameters. Accordingly, we conduct a comprehensive GSA of a complex land surface–hydrology model, Modélisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH), which combines the Canadian land surface scheme with a hydrological routing component, WATROUTE. Various GSA experiments are carried out using a new technique, called Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces, for alternative hydroclimatic conditions in Canada using multiple criteria, various model configurations, and a full set of model parameters. Results from this study reveal that, in addition to different hydroclimatic conditions and SA criteria, model configurations can also have a major impact on the assessment of sensitivity. GSA can identify aspects of the model internal functioning that are counter‐intuitive and thus help the modeller to diagnose possible model deficiencies and make recommendations for improving development and application of the model. As a specific outcome of this work, a list of the most influential parameters for the MESH model is developed. This list, along with some specific recommendations, is expected to assist the wide community of MESH and Canadian land surface scheme users, to enhance their modelling applications.  相似文献